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Partyless Kibaki to Win Elections In Kenya.

The season of heated political debate is with us again, thanks to the ever controversial Steadman Opinion polls. And one wonders why the very papers that keep on carrying the Steadman results cannot commission more research organizations to carry out the same.

Why are media houses afraid of investing in opinion polls when it is becoming apparent that especially the print media are using them to boost their sales? More importantly, why can’t the Steadman Group disclose their sponsors who some of us already know, instead of allowing speculative Kenyans to malign Kibaki’s government as the sponsor of these seemingly skewed, doctored and distorted results?

Before you hang me on the nearest tree, let me say upfront that I’m only echoing the voices of ordinary Kenyans who feel pissed off with the Steadman quarterly results.

And they may be forgiven for being pissed off because even to the scientifically inclined, including Professor Anyang’ Nyongo,’ the logic of reading the results doesn’t add up.

Sample the following reactions from ordinary Kenyans:

Mumbi, a 25 year old job seeker says that, no one can certainly say that Kibaki can take the lead if elections are called today. May be the results are a true reflection of the reality on the ground, may be they are not. However, what I know for sure is that ODM- Kenya has a lot of supporters, judging by the massive rallies it has held across the country.

Ataya, 46 year old hawker in Nairobi says that whereas the idea of opinion polls is noble, and can help leaders learn the feelings of the public, the criteria used by Steadman in conducting the research is very questionable. Where do they do it and whom do they interview? I have been in these streets for long, yet no one has ever come to seek my opinion on political issues.

Walter, a 45 year old unemployed has this to say. How can a party be popular when its leaders are not? Kalonzo, Raila and Ruto have the majority of Kenyans behind them and ODM- Kenya as a party has more strength as compared to Narc- Kenya and Narc, and no one can claim that someone else can defeat them come the next polls.

Mathew, a 22 year old Security Guard says; I don’t believe in the opinion poll. How can the pollsters claim Kibaki can win elections when his party is not popular? The President’s development record is only experienced in few selected parts of the country and not all.

Mbare, a 25 year old nurse has her opinion too. The Pollsters are too biased and the sooner Kenyans forget their results the better. The poll must have been sponsored by the Government and that is why they have tailored their results to portray Kibaki as very popular with voters. I believe Kalonzo has what it takes to lead the country and Kenyans from every corner of the country are behind him.

Nyambeki, 42 year old businessman has his say too on the controversial opinion poll. Kibaki has the capacity to lead all these people who have been on a premature campaign trail. They joined hands with Kibaki to deal the Kanu regime a humiliating blow and immediately they formed the government on a coalition basis, they began to rebel. If they are to form another government again, nothing will stop them from disagreeing and this is why people are supporting Kibaki’s reelection bid.

These sampled six opinions appeared in the local press. They are as diverse ethnically as the real Kenyan society is. We have Kikuyu, Luo, Luhya, Kamba, Kisii and Mijikenda.

Of the six people sampled by this newspaper, only one of them believed the polls and gave his reasons. In percentage terms only 16% of Kenyans according to this sample trust and believe the Steadman results against 84% that do not.

However, forget about these six people reported in the press. Let us look at the results published in the local press over the weekend and the logic behind the results. If Kibaki is truly popular, which may well be true, and then it’s possible that if we go to the polls today, it will be wise for him to run as a partyless president. If he does that then according to the Steadman Group he will win the race. However, having made history as the first partyless president, he will enter a hostile parliament full of ODM members of parliament. And that is when his headache will start. How will he form his cabinet? From the opposition party MPs?

A few weeks ago, I wrote on this column that if President Kibaki is keen for a second term in office, then the time is now to defect to the ODM- Kenya then vie for the party nomination against Raila, Ruto, Kalonzo, Kenyatta, Mudavadi and Balala. If he wins the nomination, they will surely support him as they have pledged to support any one who wins a democratic and open nomination. I said this because I had seen that the Narc- Kenya train was stillborn. It was going nowhere with its incestuous tendencies. Now the flawed Steadman opinion poll says as much. That the combined Narc and Narc- Kenya votes cannot amount to more than 38% approval rating among Kenyans.

On another note, what I saw on television in Eldoret the same night the results were announced was curiously interesting. President Kibaki and his entourage had landed in Eldoret a few hours after flagging off the EAC campaign. And the crowd was huge and excited. It was almost as huge as the recent ODM rally. Then it dawned on me that in Kenya, the cheering crowd is never really the group to trust. This cheering crowd is always there for hire. He who pays the piper calls the tune any day. Today they are with ODM- Kenya. Tomorrow they are with the Government of National Unity. And who knows? The third day they may just turn up for Narc- Kenya or New Kanu, depending on who comes first under what terms.

The latest opinion poll says that if elections were held today, Kibaki would run with seven out of eight provinces, leaving only Nyanza to die-hard Odingaists!

This means that whoever among the ODM presidential hopefuls wins the nomination; be he Kalonzo, Uhuru, Balala, Mudavadi, Raila or Ruto, only Luo Nyanza will vote for the ODM candidate.

Put another way, the opinion poll would like in a subtle way to tell Kenyans that ODM- Kenya is essentially a Luo party that the rest of Kenya does not care about.

However, if the above scenario were case, how come six well educated Kenyans are dying to run for president under ODM-Kenya? Can’t they see what the Steadman pollster is seeing? And why aren’t other Kenyans seeing what the pollster is seeing?

Is Kenya a country full of fools and idiots that can’t see the obvious?

Are we missing out on something that only the privileged pollsters are privy to?

Article Source:

Munala wa Munala


AprilUTCbMon, 02 Apr 2007 00:18:17 +0000000000amMon, 02 Apr 2007 00:18:17 +000007 19, 2007 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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